[Me & X] Winners in vibe coding
X : Who will be the winners in vibe coding?
Me : Do you mean companies?
X : Yes.
Me : I don't know, individual actors actions are difficult to predict. Back in 2018, I said that "conversational programming" (what vibe coding is) will be the next big thing, that's the easy bit. For a general discussion try - https://lnkd.in/eyxisnsX
In 2019, I estimated the winners / losers would emerge during 2025-2031 (see attached). We're in that phase now, the practices are still evolving and we've got a few more years to go. It's moving slightly slower than I expected but not by much. It is not yet clear who the winners and losers are, just keep an eye on the market, there could be many more turns in this game. Best I can give you at the moment.
X : What's next?
Me : In this space, lots of things, Industrialisation of intelligent agents should be significant and fun (see https://lnkd.in/ehpe4mh7). We're getting very close. I had that pegged for 2030-2035 back in 2014 (see attached, a point of war is the time of industrialisation, lousy term). Some have tried to convince me it is happening sooner but I don't agree. We're right on the edge of "Any given Tuesday" but just not there yet. Or were you after the next big thing?
X : Next big thing.
Me : The next big thing, significantly more than AI? That should be Spimescript (https://lnkd.in/gis7brh2) or what you probably call cyber-physical or digital-physical or whatever term people come up with. It's the combination of both the physical and digital domains. Most of the pieces are there, but industrialising hybrid printing (a key component) is at least a decade away. Once this starts, it impacts not just the digital world but huge numbers of physical value chains. Should be really interesting.
X : Do you ever look at non-technological areas?
Me : Yes. Back in 2014, I did also look at social landscapes but it's not something I want to discuss. And then I've done a lot of work on competition between nations. There's a lot of change heading our way.
Originally published on LinkedIn.